Andre Klynsmith

Politics Insight

Both Doors at Once: The Move on Mocha and Perim Puts a Second Chokepoint in Play

Yemen's Houthis seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha on Thursday and reached the strategic island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday, according to Yemeni government sources cited by Reuters. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, the region's second major maritime chokepoint is now contested — and the Cape of Good Hope has stopped being an alternative and become, for a great deal of cargo, the only route left.

Politics Insight

12 September 2026 • 4 min read

A contingency plan that routes around one chokepoint is a plan. A contingency plan that routes around one chokepoint into a second one that is also under pressure is a hope. This week the distinction stopped being academic.

A week-long advance down the Red Sea coast

Alongside Mocha, the Houthis took the Red Sea islands of Hanish and the mainland coastal town of Dhubab, which faces Perim across the water. Two sources from the internationally recognised Yemeni government told Reuters that its forces had withdrawn from Perim itself. Yemeni, Iranian and regional sources described the advance as carried out with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards, with the stated aim of opening a second front; Iran publicly denies giving the group military direction.

The Houthis' military spokesperson said maritime navigation remained safe for all shipping except Saudi vessels under a previously announced ban. Assurances of that kind are not the same as insurable risk, and underwriters price the possibility rather than the promise.

The overland bypass is under pressure too

Saudi Arabia has leaned on its East-West pipeline to move crude from its eastern coast to the Red Sea since Hormuz closed. Satellite imagery verified by Reuters showed smoke on Thursday in the vicinity of that pipeline. Neither the Saudi government media office nor Aramco confirmed any incident, and no damage has been established. But the fact that the corridor is being watched for exactly this reason tells its own story about how thin the redundancy has become.

Diplomacy has not stopped. Iran confirmed that its representatives, along with those of Iraq and the Gulf Arab states, would meet in Oman on Monday to resume talks on safe commercial shipping routes through Hormuz. Meanwhile Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump at least twice on Thursday to request US military help against the Houthis; Washington declined direct action for now, offering intelligence sharing and targeting support instead.

Why this reaches Walvis Bay and Durban

Oil was on track to close the week above US$100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May, and Hormuz transits fell to seven on Thursday from eleven the day before. For SADC operators the chain is short: constrained Gulf supply and higher war-risk premiums feed landed fuel cost, which feeds the road freight rate, which feeds the delivered price of almost everything moved inland from a port.

The second consequence is routing. With both eastern chokepoints degraded, the Cape sea route carries cargo that has nowhere else to go, and Southern African ports inherit scheduling volatility created several thousand kilometres away.

About the Author
	Andre Klynsmith Entrepreneur & Technology Enthusiast Andre's expertise spans technology, blockchain, transport, and logistics - with a passion for innovation and driving positive change across industries. info@laaimylorrie.com | laaimylorrie.com