Andre Klynsmith

Mining and Commodities

Three Million Tonnes of Copper Is Really Twelve Million Tonnes of Freight

Zambia's target of three million tonnes of copper a year by 2031 translates into between 10 and 12 million tonnes of total commodity movement into and out of the Copperbelt, because every tonne of finished copper requires roughly three tonnes of lime and a tonne of sulphur to produce.

Mining and Commodities

1 September 2026 • 4 min read

The headline number everyone quotes is the copper. The number that matters to transporters is the inbound reagent traffic that has to arrive before the copper can leave. On current ratios, that is three to four times the tonnage of the metal itself.

The Arithmetic Behind the Target

Zambia is already approaching one million tonnes of annual copper production and has set a target of three million tonnes by 2031. Speaking at the Land-Linked Zambia conference, ZCCM-IH chairperson Phesto Musonda set out the ratio that turns a mining target into a logistics problem: for every tonne of copper produced, mines require approximately three tonnes of lime plus another tonne of sulphur, among other inputs.

Apply that to three million tonnes of output and the freight requirement lands between 10 and 12 million tonnes of commodities moving into and out of the mining regions. The export leg is the visible part. The inbound reagent leg is larger, less discussed, and just as capacity-constrained.

Planning in Silos Is the Named Risk

TAZARA managing director Bruno Ching'andu described the target as "an invitation and a challenge at the same time", and identified the structural problem plainly: mining and transport infrastructure planning have traditionally happened separately. Miners plan extraction; rail operators are not routinely brought to the table. The consequence is that transport capacity gets specified reactively, after volumes have already grown.

"When we start looking for the equipment to move these increased volumes, we don't have it," he said. "Readiness is going to be a challenge." Rolling stock, locomotives, tippers, tankers and skilled crews all have procurement lead times measured in years, not quarters.

Capacity Will Be Built Incrementally, Not Ahead of Demand

The financing problem is circular. Investors are unlikely to fund transport infrastructure today purely on the expectation that Zambia produces three million tonnes in 2031. Standard Bank's head of trade development, Lester Anderson, expects capacity to be developed incrementally as a result — which means periods where volume outruns capacity rather than a smooth ramp.

TAZARA itself is under full rehabilitation, with construction on a new training centre and a modern operations control centre in Dar es Salaam having started in July 2026 under the revitalisation project. But rail alone will not absorb the growth. Musonda stressed that customs, security and border processes must also work efficiently at higher volumes, and that road and rail need to operate intermodally rather than compete for the same cargo.

About the Author
	Andre Klynsmith Entrepreneur & Technology Enthusiast Andre's expertise spans technology, blockchain, transport, and logistics — with a passion for innovation and driving positive change across industries. info@laaimylorrie.com | laaimylorrie.com